Employment growth remained very strong in March, with the establishment survey showing the addition of 303k jobs. A key question around that is if the non-inflationary underlying run-rate has moved higher. The Congressional Budget Office has recently pointed out that immigration may have been substantially higher over the last couple of years. The prime-age employment to population ratio, one of our favorite measures of the labor market, points in that direction: it has remained flat over the last several months and is down from mid-23 peaks despite ongoing payroll strength.
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